🇹🇭 Thailand’s PM Suspended – Will the “Coup Cycle” Repeat?

By Jeong In-hwan | July 12, 2025

On July 1, Thailand’s Constitutional Court issued a decision to suspend Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra from office, citing alleged ethical violations linked to leaked conversations with Cambodia’s Senate President Hun Sen. The fallout was immediate: military-aligned parties pulled out of the ruling coalition, opposition leaders demanded the dissolution of parliament, and royalist demonstrators flooded the streets of Bangkok.

For a country that has undergone 13 successful coups since 1932, many fear the return of a familiar cycle — constitutional deadlock, street unrest, and eventual military intervention.

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📞 The Trigger: A Leaked Phone Call With “Uncle Hun Sen”

On June 15, PM Paetongtarn had a 16-minute phone conversation with former Cambodian Prime Minister and current Senate President Hun Sen, her father's long-time ally. The two discussed ways to defuse rising tensions along the Thai-Cambodian border following a May 28th military clash in the Emerald Triangle, where one Cambodian soldier was killed.

Unbeknownst to Paetongtarn, Hun Sen recorded the call and shared it with over 80 Cambodian officials. The recording was leaked three days later, igniting a political firestorm in Thailand.

In the call, Paetongtarn referred to Hun Sen as “uncle” and criticized Thai Army Region 2 Commander Bunthin Phatkang — a known hardliner — as an "opponent." The remark was quickly interpreted by military elites as a breach of national trust.

Although Paetongtarn later claimed, “It was merely negotiation strategy — there is no rift with the military,” the damage had been done.

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⚠️ Political Fallout: A Familiar Pattern of Destabilization

The Thai military’s reaction was swift. Pro-military senators filed a constitutional complaint accusing the PM of violating ethical codes. Within days, the court suspended her, and mass protests erupted. Analysts across Southeast Asia observed a worrying déjà vu effect.

This is not the first time the Shinawatra family has faced political takedown via institutional means:

• 2006: Thaksin Shinawatra won a landslide victory amid an opposition boycott. The Constitutional Court invalidated the election. The military staged a coup.

• 2011: Thaksin’s sister Yingluck Shinawatra became PM after another landslide win.

• 2014: Amid mass protests, the Constitutional Court ousted Yingluck. Two weeks later, the military seized power again.

• 2023–2024: After a surprise win by the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP), the Constitutional Court dissolved the party for “threatening the monarchy.”

As Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai Party built a coalition with military-aligned factions after MFP's removal, many saw it as a compromise with autocratic forces — a truce now visibly unraveling.

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🌐 Cross-Border Tensions: A Regional Powder Keg

The leaked call also had regional implications. In June, Cambodia declared a state of alert along the Thai border, closed customs posts, and banned Thai media broadcasts. Hun Sen publicly encouraged a boycott of Thai goods, triggering diplomatic escalation.

Hun Sen’s heavy-handed move to publicize the conversation is viewed by many as a political maneuver to undermine Paetongtarn’s standing both domestically and internationally. Thai generals — particularly in Region 2 — interpreted her private criticism as a betrayal.

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🪖 Coup Watch: Will the Military Step In Again?

Many Thais, and international observers, fear that the conditions for a coup are again materializing.

“Most Thai citizens do not want another military takeover,”
says Kevin Hewison, a Southeast Asia scholar at UNC-Chapel Hill.
“But we can’t rule it out. The military never fully left the stage — they joined the coalition, only to sow instability from within.”

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a political scientist at Chulalongkorn University, concurs:

“The military may hesitate to seize power outright, but the coup option is never off the table. Since the early 2000s, the military or judiciary has repeatedly intervened in Thai politics, often using protests as justification. We’ve seen this pattern before — legal challenges, mass mobilizations, then unconstitutional transitions.”

He warns that prolonged instability could pressure the court or military into acting again — a cycle of “soft coups” and judicial purges that has plagued Thai democracy for decades.

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📉 The Stakes: Political Paralysis and Regional Credibility

Thailand’s economy, already vulnerable from global headwinds, could suffer further if the political crisis deepens. The 2014 coup resulted in diplomatic backlash, downgraded trade relations, and stalled investment.

Now, with the military-aligned judiciary once again asserting control, and popular discontent boiling over, the international community is watching closely.

Will Thailand return to full military rule?
Or will it find a constitutional off-ramp through early elections or power reshuffling?

The coming weeks will be decisive — not just for Thailand’s domestic stability, but for the balance of power in mainland Southeast Asia.