🏆 Skubal vs. Skenes: Who’s Really Leading the 2025 Cy Young Race?
🏆 Skubal vs. Skenes: Who’s Really Leading the 2025 Cy Young Race?
By [Your Name] | July 8, 2025
As the 2025 MLB season hits the All-Star break, the Cy Young Award race is heating up on both sides of the league. In the American League, Tarik Skubal continues his ruthless tear through lineups. Meanwhile, in the National League, Paul Skenes is putting up video game stats — but still stuck with a mediocre win–loss record.
So who’s truly in the lead?
Let’s break down the tale of two elite pitchers — Skubal vs. Skenes — and why the Cy Young criteria might need a fresh look.
⚔️ The Case for Tarik Skubal (AL – Detroit Tigers)
Detroit's ace has become the most consistent weapon on the mound in all of MLB this season. His 2025 numbers so far:
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10-2 Record
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2.02 ERA (2nd in AL)
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148 Strikeouts (2nd in AL)
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WHIP: 0.93
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Avg. Fastball Velocity: 97.6 mph
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Team: 57-34 (.626), Best Record in MLB
Beyond the stats, Skubal has a powerful narrative:
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Reigning AL Cy Young winner
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Leading the Tigers to the top of the league standings
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Delivering 7+ innings per start with elite command and killer changeups
His ability to mix velocity with control has made him nearly untouchable, and voters tend to reward both dominance and team success. Skubal has both.
⚡ The Case for Paul Skenes (NL – Pittsburgh Pirates)
Paul Skenes is doing something we've never quite seen from a rookie pitcher — and yet, his numbers come with frustration. Why?
2025 Stats:
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4-7 Record
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1.94 ERA (1st in NL, 2nd in MLB)
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116.0 IP (2nd in NL & MLB)
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125 Strikeouts (4th in NL)
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WHIP: 0.92
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12 Quality Starts out of 19
Skenes has held opposing teams to 2 runs or fewer in 16 of his 19 starts, but Pittsburgh’s offense continues to abandon him. He’s lost or received no-decisions in 7 straight starts since May 29 — despite stellar outings.
Still, he’s dominating in innings, ERA, and advanced metrics (FIP, K/BB). Analysts increasingly argue that traditional pitcher wins no longer reflect a player’s real value.
⚖️ Head-to-Head: Advanced Metric Showdown
| Stat | Skubal (AL) | Skenes (NL) |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 2.02 | 1.94 |
| WHIP | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| Strikeouts | 148 | 125 |
| Wins | 10 | 4 |
| Quality Starts | 13 | 12 |
| FIP (Fielding-Independent Pitching) | ~2.34* | ~2.00* |
*FIP estimates via FanGraphs projection models as of July 8.
🎙️ The Voter Dilemma: Narrative or Numbers?
Skubal has the classic Cy Young profile:
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High win total
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Low ERA
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Team dominance
Skenes has the "purest dominance" profile:
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Best ERA
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Most innings
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Little to no offensive help
If voters prioritize wins and playoff contention, Skubal is the favorite.
If they reward true pitching excellence, Skenes could become the rare Cy Young winner with a losing record.
🧠 Final Thought: Who Should Win?
This year's race may reflect a shift in how we value pitchers.
Is ERA + strikeouts the new gold standard? Or do wins and playoff relevance still rule?
As of now, Skubal leads the race — but Skenes is rewriting the rules. And that makes this Cy Young season one of the most compelling in years.
🔖 Hashtags
#CyYoungRace2025 #TarikSkubal #PaulSkenes #MLBPitchers #MLB2025
#BaseballAnalytics #StrikeoutLeaders #MLBAllStar #BaseballAwards
#MLBStats #PiratesBaseball #TigersBaseball #PitchingDominance
#RookiePhenoms #MLBDebate
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