⚖️ Do Wins Still Matter? Paul Skenes and the Death of the Pitcher Win
⚖️ Do Wins Still Matter? Paul Skenes and the Death of the Pitcher Win
By [Your Name] | July 8, 2025
Once upon a time, 20 wins guaranteed Cy Young votes. But in 2025, we’re watching a pitcher with a sub-2.00 ERA, 125 Ks, and a WHIP under 1.00… sitting at 4 wins.
Yes, we’re talking about Paul Skenes, the Pittsburgh Pirates' phenom — and the latest poster child for a growing truth in baseball:
Pitcher wins are broken.
Let’s dig into why "W-L record" is quickly losing its place in serious baseball analysis — and how Paul Skenes might finally bury it for good.
🧨 The Case of Paul Skenes: Dominant But “Losing”
Here’s a look at Paul Skenes’ current stats (as of July 7, 2025):
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4-7 W-L record
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1.94 ERA (1st in NL)
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116 IP (2nd in NL)
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125 strikeouts (4th in NL)
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0.92 WHIP (2nd in NL)
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12 Quality Starts out of 19
That’s an elite stat line — one worthy of Cy Young discussion. Yet his win total is the lowest among the Top 10 ERA leaders in MLB.
Why? Because the Pirates can’t score runs for him. He’s received less than 2.8 runs of support per start, one of the lowest in the league.
🧠 The Problem with the “Win” Stat
The pitcher win is an outdated concept in a modern baseball world shaped by:
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Openers
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Bullpen games
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Pitch count restrictions
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Unpredictable run support
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Win conditions (e.g., must pitch 5+ innings, team must be leading when exiting)
These make the stat unreliable, often more a reflection of team performance than individual excellence.
“Wins measure luck and run support more than talent.” — Baseball Prospectus
🔍 A Better Way: Modern Metrics That Matter
Serious fans and analysts now rely on:
| Metric | What It Shows |
|---|---|
| ERA / FIP / xERA | True run prevention ability |
| WHIP | How often a pitcher allows baserunners |
| K/BB ratio | Command and dominance |
| WAR (Wins Above Replacement) | Total value to a team |
| QS (Quality Starts) | Consistency and reliability |
By these measures, Skenes is elite. In fact, some advanced models place him ahead of Spencer Strider, Zac Gallen, and even Max Fried in NL value rankings.
🏆 Cy Young Without Wins? It’s Happening
While Felix Hernandez (2010) famously won the AL Cy Young with a 13-12 record, we’ve yet to see a sub-10-win pitcher win the award.
Skenes might be the first.
If he finishes the season with, say, 9 wins, 180+ Ks, and a sub-2.10 ERA, he’ll force voters to confront their biases — and finally abandon W-L loyalty.
💬 What Fans Are Saying
“Skenes is the real deal. It’s not his fault the Pirates can’t hit.”
– @SteelCityStats
“We’re watching a generational pitcher get punished by a useless stat.”
– Reddit/r/baseball
“If Cy Young voters still care about wins, they don’t deserve a ballot.”
– @FangraphsFan
🔮 The Future of Pitching Metrics
Expect to see “Wins” continue fading from relevance, replaced by:
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Win Probability Added (WPA)
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Run Value by pitch type
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Expected stats (xERA, xFIP, xBA)
Even broadcast graphics are adapting — showcasing spin rate, chase %, and run value instead of W-L.
🗣️ Final Thought
Paul Skenes is making us ask the hard questions.
Should a pitcher be judged by a number he can't control?
If we want the Cy Young to truly reward pitching greatness, then it's time to stop chasing wins — and start honoring dominance.
🔖 Hashtags
#PaulSkenes #PitcherWinsAreDead #MLB2025 #CyYoungDebate #AdvancedStats
#BaseballAnalytics #Sabermetrics #PiratesBaseball #ModernMetrics
#WARnotWINS #MLBHotTakes #PitchingDominance #MLBTrends #FIPvsWINS
#CyYoung2025
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